HarpoSpoke
Budding Skeptic
  
Posts: 183
Joined: Jul 2009
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RE: CNN tonight (Dec 7)-"Is Global Warming Real?"
(12-08-2009 05:16 PM)Sunsettommy Wrote: Quote:Michael Oppenheimer was allowed to get away with saying that CO2 remains in the atmosphere for 1000 years or more.
That is far longer than the IPCC's own numbers between 50-200 years.
It seems that Mike is telling a tall tale.
While decades of published papers for the most part place it between 5-15 years.
I've noticed they (AGW proponents in general) keep pushing that number higher and higher (for effect I guess?). That alone should discredit them.
Last night's installment was again...not bad. Even more balanced than Monday actually. (The opposite of what I expected) They even had their staff meteorologist on and he was much more fair than I expected. (Openly admitting that there are huge gaps in knowledge of the climate)
I missed a little of a debate between two politicians arguing but I have almost zero interest in what they have to say anyway.
The interesting part was the two scientists. Bill Nye (the science guy) and Patrick Michaels. Both were very civil (respect to Bill Nye, he came off as nice even though I disagree with him) and made their points. I honestly think Michaels was more impressive despite my personal bias. He is well spoken, calm, and brought up several problems with altered data that do not get talked about in the media. Nye didn't have a counter point on those issues so it was a "win" for Michaels. Both agreed that the end result of this scandal is a positive (more transparency and better science).
Found a transcript:
Quote:Joining me right now is educator Bill Nye, "The Science Guy," and also Patrick Jay Michaels, who is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, a libertarian research institute. And his book, "Climate of Extremes: Global Warming Science They Don't Want You to Know," he has a very different take on this from Bill.
So let's get into this with you first, Patrick, because you were singled out in some of these e-mails and the scientists in question, not at all fans of your work. One wrote, quote, "Next time I see Pat Michaels at a scientific meeting, I'll be tempted to beat the crap out of him." Why are they targeting you?
PATRICK J. MICHAELS, CATO INSTITUTE: Maybe they need some anger management treatment, I don't know. They did not like the fact that I had written an op-ed in October that was called "The Dog Ate Global Warming," which had to do with the fact that East Anglia had said that they lost the original data on global warming in the mid-1980s. I took exception with that because we used to have these things called nine-inch tape drives.
You know, I want to tell you something. We hear a lot of noise, a lot of heat about this thing. There's going to be some good news come out of this, and I bet you Bill is going to agree with me that scientific data is going to become much more open on climate change. The journal editors are going to do everything they can to act to show that they're not being intimidated, so we're going to see more diversity. This is going to turn out to be a very good thing if we just wait for the storm to, you know, to settle itself.
BROWN: And, Bill, to that point, I mean, these e-mails did make it seem like scientists aren't willing to have an open debate on this. Do you believe that there is room for debate?
NYE: Room for debate about what?
BROWN: About the specifics of global warming.
NYE: Well, sure. You talk about the specifics. But this -- I complete agree. You're right, Dr. Michaels, way to go.
MICHAELS: Thank you.
NYE: It will -- it will make --
MICHAELS: It's going to be a good thing.
NYE: It will make -- ultimately, yes. But in the meantime, like, for example, Ms. Brown, you guys are running the scroll across the bottom of the screen that goes, I've been watching it, it goes about evenly people who support the idea what we're doing in Copenhagen is very important and people are opposed to it for political reasons. And what makes it look like the debate is even, like there's as many people on one side as the other. But in the scientific community, we strongly emphasize that that's not the case at all and this is why, I think is why, you find people who want to sock Patrick Michaels in the chops, as he's very well credentialed and he's on the other side of this thing. So, OK, all this aside.
BROWN: But hold -- let me stop you there, though, Bill, because you're right. I mean, here's the problem you have. The scientific community is not evenly divided on this. There are a few people who disagree with the vast majority of the scientific community. But the fact is --
NYE: Nobel Prize.
BROWN: The fact is, though, and you can't deny this, is that these e-mails, the way they were written, it was very troubling to a lot of people and that was damaging to the credibility of that majority of scientists who may have been doing work properly and following all the right regulations. And so what's happened is you see this division among the general public. And that is that little crawl (ph) you see under your screen.
And that's a problem. That's a problem for scientists who believe global warming is a problem. You've got to get people on board.
NYE: Well, sure. Yes, I think the analogy that Congressman Inslee brought up earlier in the show about smoking is -- it's a very common analogy, but it's pretty good, where people deny it for a long time and after a while people get worn out. And as Dr. Michaels pointed out, after a while, after these data are public, it will blow over and this thing will become common knowledge. But, in the meantime, I'll just remind you, that the few phrases that are in there show you the power of the Internet and that, ultimately, these things will, I think, sort themselves out.
MICHAELS: Let me tell you the way they're sorting out.
NYE: There's a lot of e-mails. There's a lot of -- say again?
MICHAEL: Let me tell you the way they're sorting out. Something very interesting has happened in the last two days.
We hear that the East Anglia e-mails were not important because there are other climate records. Well, now, it's been found out that the National Climatic Data Center, a global historical climate network, has data in Australia that has a six-degree per century trend in it that was put in the data when the real data don't have the trend. And we're seeing in Alaska, in central Alaska, where every climate scientist knows there was a jump in temperature in the mid- 1970s, and they haven't done much after that. We e see another trend superimposed upon the data there. So the result of "climate-gate," people are looking very carefully.
NYE: This is specific stuff.
MICHAELS: They're looking very carefully at the data. It's going to be good, Bill, just hang on. We'll get better science.
NYE: These are very specific things, especially when you talk about surface temperatures in one part of the world, especially a part of the world where we have very good sensors.
MICHAELS: That's true. Bill, I agree with you. And let me just tell you something about stratospheric temperatures. As you know, greenhouse theory predicts stratospheric temperatures will decline. Well, oddly enough, if you look at the satellite-base stratospheric temperatures for the last 10 or 12 years, they don't show a decline. Something very, very funny is going on in the atmosphere.
I'm not going to tell you that I know and anybody who tells you that they know, I'm going to be rather skeptical of it at this point in time, because that stratosphere is a global behavior, that's not a local behavior, and it's not doing the right thing.
NYE: Well, everybody presupposes that it's a global behavior.
MICHAELS: The satellites measure the temperature globally. They go round and round the planet.
BROWN: All right.
NYE: OK, all right.
MICHAELS: You're the science guy.
NYE: Well, I was of the opinion -- well, I was of the opinion that hurricanes would get stronger.
BROWN: Let me --
NYE: Well, somehow, there's something going on where they're getting decapitated.
MICHAELS: Well --
NYE: So if you have a theory that disagrees with what goes on in nature, the problem is almost certainly with the theory, not with nature. So I am open-minded there with you on that.
MICHAELS: Hurricanes are real complicated beasts.
NYE: But the claim --
BROWN: All right.
NYE: The claim -- yes, exactly. The claim that the scientists in Copenhagen have a conspiracy to defeat conservative elements, especially in the United States, is not a very reasonable theory to me.
MICHAELS: No, no, but they did certainly try and pressure journal editors to keep (INAUDIBLE) out of the journals.
NYE: Well, let me ask you about this one.
BROWN: All right, guys, we --
NYE: Oh, we got to go?
BROWN: Well, I would love it if I could get a little common ground between the two of you to end on.
MICHAELS: We had it. We said it's going to be good in the end. Trust us, Campbell.
NYE: Ultimately, it's going to be good.
MICHAELS: We agree. It's going to be great.
NYE: On that one thing, do you agree that we'd be better off if we were less inefficient in our energy production?
MICHAELS: Of course.
NYE: The future belongs, do you agree, that we could save --
BROWN: And on that note --
NYE: Do you agree that we could save about 30 percent? OK?
MICHAELS: I believe Campbell says I've got to say goodbye, Bill. Have a good night.
Also props to CNN for actually covering the furor over the leaked "Danish leak". I think every other network is ignoring it/doesn't even know about it. They had the same reporter there as Monday and she didn't soft-pedal its impact. I was impressed.
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